Pearce and Adrian Raftery , a professor of sociology and of statistics at the UW, took a different approach. They asked what the longest individual human lifespan could be anywhere in the world by the year Using Bayesian statistics, a common tool in modern statistics, the researchers estimated that the world record of years almost certainly will be broken, with a strong likelihood of at least one person living to anywhere between and years.
To calculate the probability of living past — and to what age — Raftery and Pearce turned to the most recent iteration of the International Database on Longevity , created by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. That database tracks supercentenarians from 10 European countries, plus Canada, Japan and the United States. Using a Bayesian approach to estimate probability, the UW team created projections for the maximum reported age at death in all 13 countries from through As it is, supercentenarians are outliers, and the likelihood of breaking the current age record increases only if the number of supercentenarians grows significantly.
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Minister in the Prime Read full article. Keertan Ayamany. The Health Ministry recorded the age of a foreign man who died in Sabah today of Covid at Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions. In order to improve our community experience, we are temporarily suspending article commenting. Latest stories.
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